Skip links

How to measure the probability of a conversion

A lot of people see getting conversions as a mysterious process, or a complex science that is reserved for data scientists alone. Yes the conversion process takes time and you need some certain skills to do it right, but it all really boils down to one simple formula:

C = 4m + 3v + 2(i – f) – 2a

C = the probability of conversion
m = the motivation of user to take the action (when)
v = the clarity of the value proposition (why)
i = the incentive provided to take action
f = the friction elements of the process
a = the anxiety about entering information

So the probability of conversion depends on the match between the offer and visitor motivation + the clarity of the value proposition + (incentives to take action now – friction) – anxiety. The numbers next to the characters signify the importance of each element.

Friction is defined as psychological resistance to a given element in the sales or sign up process. Anxiety is a psychological concern stimulated by a given element in the sales or sign up process.
Once you understand this, you realize that to increase conversions, you need to reduce friction and anxiety as much as possible and do what you can to increase the users motivation and incentive and clarify the value position

As a bonus, here is the conversion formula for Email effectiveness:

Eme = rv(of + I) – (f + a)

Eme = email messaging effectiveness index
Rv = relevance to the consumer
Of = offer value (why)
I = incentive to take action
F = friction elements of the process
A = anxiety about entering information

What do you think? Is this an oversimplification of a complex process, or can conversion rate optimization be explained as ensuring that your offers and incentives outweigh the hesitations of your visitor?